Thursday, November 29, 2012

The Future of Corn Exports

I read an interesting article yesterday with thoughts and predictions from Purdue Ag Economist, Phil Abbott.

You can read the article from AgWeb here: U.S. Unlikely to Dominate Future Corn Exports



There are a lot of factors involved, but combining them all together makes one thing very possible- US exports of corn are likely to decrease.

The photo that accompanied this article on agweb.com reminded me of my only international experience about 15 years ago. I traveled with the National FFA Organization to Japan. There we visited a company called Chita Futo. We stood at the top of a tower wearing hard hats and watched as cargo ships unloaded hundreds of thousands of bushels of grain from the United States. And then we watched the ships leave again full of electronics and cars and other items desired by the US consumer. It seemed like a good system to me. Use our land and hardworking farmers to produce grain that Asia can't with their land availability and get their products in return.

But now the US is not the only country will the ability to grow that grain.

According to Abbott, in the last 15 years South America has increased planted acres by 53%.

Of course weather will always play a huge role in where grain comes from. The drought this summer is estimated to have reduced total bushels of corn in the US by about 13% compared to 2011.

But one influencing factor we have that other countries do not is corn requirements for domestic ethanol production used in gasoline. Abbott says that roughly 40% of corn produced in the US is used for ethanol production. Using this corn for our energy needs reduces opportunity to export.

Just a little something for you to think about today...